Success probability worksheet

Run the model on your own data

Upload a de-identified dataset, or enter a cohort's values directly. Everything below runs in your browser — your file is never sent to a server.

1Choose how you'll provide data

Only upload data that has already been scrubbed of names, IDs, and any other personally identifiable information. This tool processes your file locally and does not transmit it anywhere.

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Expected columns: R, A, I, S (0–1 scale). Optional: V, D.

R — test score momentum

Normalized 0–1

A — attendance rate

e.g. 0.92 for 92%

I — instructional fidelity

e.g. 0.85 for 85%

S — demographic factor

FRL/subgroup density

V — growth velocity (optional)

RIT point change, term over term

z = β₀ + β₁R + β₂A + β₃I + β₄S + β₇V, with β₀=-4.0, β₁=3.0, β₂=2.5, β₃=1.5, β₄=-0.5, β₇=0.2. These are the book's illustrative baseline weights — recalibrate against your own district's historical cohort data before using this operationally.

2Where should we send your result?

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3Your result

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0%60%80%100%

This is an illustrative calculation using the book's baseline coefficients, not a validated prediction for your specific population. See Chapter 10 for how to check and recalibrate a model against real outcomes.