A leader's guide to predictive mathematical modeling in K-12 education, using the everyday indicators you already track — no data science team required.
About the book
From building your first predictive model at the district level, to scaling it statewide, to a full statistical formalization for your technical team — this book follows one composite district's story from raw data to a funded, board-approved intervention, and beyond.
Companion resources
Success probability calculator
Upload a de-identified dataset or enter values manually to see the model in action.
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Worksheets
The Variable Identification Matrix and Actionable Insights Worksheet.
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Python reference
Tested reference code from Chapter 9 and Appendix B.
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Presentation companion
A concise digest of all 12 chapters, built for board briefings.
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Bring the model to your district or state agency — a half-day workshop, or ongoing coaching support for your data team.
What reviewers are saying
“Policy by the Numbers turns complex predictive modeling into clear, actionable guidance any district can use.”
“A rare blend of technical rigor and human-centered storytelling — this book makes data feel usable, not intimidating.”
“Finally, a modeling guide that respects both the math and the educators who rely on it.”
“This manuscript shows how early-warning systems can be transparent, ethical, and genuinely student-centered.”
“A practical roadmap for leaders who want to move from reactive reporting to proactive, equity-driven decision-making.”
“As a superintendent, I’ve sat through countless presentations where the data was impressive but unusable. This book fixes that problem. It gives leaders a framework they can actually deploy — one that aligns early-warning indicators with resource allocation and equity goals. The case studies feel real, the guidance is practical, and the emphasis on transparency is exactly what districts need. *Policy by the Numbers* is the roadmap we’ve been missing.”
“Policy by the Numbers is the rare education book that respects both the complexity of school systems and the humanity of the students within them. Mosqueda translates statistical modeling into language that superintendents, board members, and families can actually understand — and trust. The High‑Needs Equity Model is a game‑changer: transparent, defensible, and immediately actionable. This is the first predictive‑analytics guide I’ve seen that feels built for real districts, not theoretical ones. Every state agency should have this on its required reading list.”
Get in touch
Fill out the form, or email directly at mosq73@hotmail.com.